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Post by naf1138 on Jan 21, 2009 13:40:30 GMT -5
Well, NAF, if things play out more or less as you suspect, then the mislynch that results in a Scum win would be the seventh mislynch of the game (and that's not even counting the SK lynches as mislynches). Frankly, I'm feeling a bit like this game turned out to be unbalanced in favor of Town, if it's possible for them to mislynch six times, plus lynch both SKs, plus have the Scum successfully take out virtually nothing but power roles, and still end in a Town win. I don't think it is though. You are holding the balance up to too fine a standard. In a game that has 6 scum the fastest it can end is 3 Days (lynch scum every Day, and an SK/vig takes sucm out every Night). If you hold that 1 scum every 4 lynches is average play (debatable) and 1 scum every 3 is above average play (and it is) then with above average play you are going to have 6 mislynches at a minimum before the game can possibly end. If none of the scum are taken out by NK then you have 12 mislynches for the town to win with excelent play. And at that point I don't even know if a town win is still possible. (I am not really running numbers, I am just doing some quick math.) Right now the town has lynched 2 scum in 6 Days and taken out 2 non scum, but also non town players essentially neutral roles). With non-perfect but what I would call reasonably excelent play town is still looking to lose on around Day 11. That isn't a pro-town balance. If anything I think you tipped the scales to the scum by giving them one scum member too many. |
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Post by catinasuit on Jan 21, 2009 15:07:54 GMT -5
AFAICT, the balance of the game is fine. The town has played reasonably well and is reflected in the number of scum lynches so far.
They got off to a terrible start by Day 2 when they didn't save macey and lost bufftabby to an SK. They are going to miss those extra kills and the roleblock ability and have to make it up.
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Post by cometothedarkside on Jan 22, 2009 13:24:00 GMT -5
Poor pede...1 out of 6 ain't bad...right?  |
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Post by catinasuit on Jan 22, 2009 13:54:58 GMT -5
Storyteller, its quiet, because Squid isn't running the bar and no HNC, Zoggie and Hockey Monkey cage dancing with Santo looking on appreciatively. As for pede and Hawkeyeop, it's not one of their best games.  |
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Post by Frank on Jan 22, 2009 14:00:40 GMT -5
So scum tried to take out Total Lost; she survived, but her protective power has left her now. Almost Human will be activated as the backup Doc at Dusk.
They've cursed amrussell, so if he gets lynched toDay the last player to vote for him will bite it.
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Post by naf1138 on Jan 22, 2009 14:29:51 GMT -5
I really hope town doesn't by into the lynch of amrussell. It's easy to see that scum are leading that charge from this side of the fence, but from the other side I think it might be harder to see.
That being said, I do think that if people cross reference the players who are pushing for the amrussell lynch with the players fighting to save Mhaye, it will be the nail in JSexton and brewha's coffin. Particulalry with the terrible posts those two have put up recently. It has been a long time since I have seen posts that drip with scummy opportunism and misdirection the way the last posts by each of them do.
Scum are getting cocky, it might be their undoing.
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Post by Hoopy Frood on Jan 22, 2009 14:30:02 GMT -5
Guess I don't need to comment on ped after all since others beat me to it.
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Post by naf1138 on Jan 22, 2009 15:20:30 GMT -5
I can't imagine that this doesn't give TL away to the scum. But that might be a good thing. If they think she is a Doc and self protecting, they might not take a shot at her again anytime soon.
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Post by catinasuit on Jan 23, 2009 4:05:05 GMT -5
From JSexton: He's not that stupid. There are plenty of other ways a Night kill could be stopped. Let's just ask a roleblocker to out themselves shall we.  Ok, everybody join in on the pointing song.... Scum, scum, scum, scum ------------------> JSexton. |
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Post by naf1138 on Jan 23, 2009 11:02:30 GMT -5
I know! I can't believe that JSexton has made the last few posts that he has made.
Story, can we get links to the scum boards? I would be really curious to know what the heck they are thinking.
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Post by naf1138 on Jan 23, 2009 12:28:22 GMT -5
God, lynching AH right now will be disaster for the town. There will be no leads back to the scum from this lynch and they lose the backup doc.
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Post by cometothedarkside on Jan 24, 2009 14:45:08 GMT -5
This is not going well for the town Today... They could go back and read my analysis of brewha's contribution to fragmenting of the vote block that would've (and should've  ) brought Mhaye down the first time, but they probably won't go back. And even if they did, with my luck they'd pick up on what I noticed about amrussel wanting to know what, exactly, was wrong with Mhaye's roleclaim. Which (in hindsight and my humble opinion) was too blatantly obvious for a scum move. |
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Post by Hoopy Frood on Jan 24, 2009 19:17:10 GMT -5
I know! I can't believe that JSexton has made the last few posts that he has made. Story, can we get links to the scum boards? I would be really curious to know what the heck they are thinking. The scum and mason board links are on Page 1 of this thread. Oh and pedescribe: You've got another think coming, ped. |
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Post by cometothedarkside on Jan 25, 2009 16:42:29 GMT -5
Fucking hell yes! Go town. Bye-bye JSexton. You cannot escape the fate of the CHAINSAW.  |
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Post by Frank on Jan 25, 2009 18:00:06 GMT -5
So here's an interesting thing:
Obviously, there's no way to know for sure how the game would have played out. But if Cookies had Vigged JSexton as she intended, the Town almost surely would have lynched either Almost Human or amrussell toDay, and in so doing would either have lost their last protector or gotten hit with the Curse and lost an extra player. Kind of comes out in the wash, I guess, but the missed kill order winds up not hurting the Town so terribly badly after all.
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) brought Mhaye down the first time, but they probably won't go back.