Howdy

[Frank]

Or, I guess, we could just have blockey kill peeker. That'd solve a few problems for us, and limit the danger he poses. But if he dies and ISN'T a Daykiller, then we have lost our best lead on whoever is.

I count seven possible Chains remaining, based on Ed's list and in light of the deaths so far. If there are two left (my best guess is four Chains to start, although who really knows?), a random shot into the pool would have a decent shot at eliminating one of them.

[special]

I've modified the 'what we know Day 2 post"

[normalphase]

If peeker is willing to commit to us, we should try to keep him alive. He certainly should NOT be lynched -- he knows too much.

About the Misfits. Pull Story in now, or not? I tend to think we should, but it needs careful management.

[special]

Peeker might be killed toNight. I think that's the nest way to handle him.

I think he's too dangerous to be left alive. We can't be sure he'll work with us, even if he commits.

[normalphase]

I don't really want it to happen, but I'm in no position to argue against it. What are your thoughts on Story and the Misfits?

Story is getting a lot of suspicion for being HoC, which is sure to draw some investigations or kill attempts from other HoC. I can prevent those from succeeding, but we need to be more proactive, too.

[special]

I think we can invite story over there.

Would it be possible to keep this site a secret from them?

I fear that whatever we do, we're facing a possible lynch of him toMorrow without the win condition being made public, and maybe even then.

[normalphase]

Well he hasn't ever been investigated or anything to my knowledge; it's all just circumstantial. We could fake up a clan membership for him easily enough; heck, he could take Guiri's extra slot if Guiri hasn't told anyone else about that power and if you can conceal your own membership in this clan.

I don't know if we should invite them here or not. My instinct is usually toward openness where-ever possible, and it might be possible here. But Sinjin is a complicating factor. In any case I would try to avoid it until morning.

I'd also like you to preferentially use your lie-detector power to check out people we are or may be allied with, that they are not HoC/MoDD. Sooner or later we're going to have to make a strong push to find the latter, and to begin by clearing a circle of known and trusted "innocents" would be good strategy, I think.

[normalphase]

From Peeker:

well like i previously, posted neither ed nor story are dead. if i wanted them that way they would be so i see the value in an alliance. plus i knew maha wasn't going to swing so i think you can see why i didn't fight for him.

what's the durn proposal?

i'm probably going to need a little help toNight.

[Frank]

Which group are the Misfits? How confident can we be that none of them are HoC?

The problem is that as soon as the number of people invited over here becomes greater than four, the incentive for someone to break ranks becomes very great - after all, no more than four of you can win, even if you take me with you. Bringing over two more - an idea to which I don't object in principle - means that we can no longer include sinjin, or that we'd have to create a second group of four (maybe the three of us, sinjin, and peeker?).

Actually, that second idea isn't a bad one. If we bring two more here - Guiri and someone else? - then have normalphase and peeker join the Clan of the Big Idiot and explain everything to sinjin - that would give us a strong core of six votes. I think I can count on Misterblockey and Total Lost to protect me, and with eight votes we might be able to swing a power move on Day Three. We would then treat this group - you two, me, Guiri, and whoever - as our real alliance, with sinjin and peeker serving as a secondary alliance to be, unfortunately, discarded later in the game.

What think? If we can guarantee eight votes tomorrow, I'm pretty sure I won't swing no matter who does what.

Night actions:

Blockey knows the Night killer, and is himself a Night redirector, so he is currently in charge of the Night kill. He is attempting to cement an alliance with me and with Total, and in order to secure my trust he has asked me for two names of players he should not kill under any circumstances. I actually kind of think he's being straight with me, at least for toNight. If I give him Ed's and nphase's names, the two of you should be reasonably safe tonight. nphase should redirect me onto someone we suspect of being HoC, I think. Then I can go trolling for HoC with my kill - I have about a 1 or 2 in 7 shot of finding one, based on what we have.

Meanwhile, sinjin could protect either nphase or Ed, but pretend to be protecting peeker. If peeker dies toNight, great, problem solved. If he doesn't, he'll be grateful to sinjin for the protect. I am going to try to convince Blockey to take out Mahaloth, who is too big a problem to solve otherwise.

What think? If you agree, then spill the situation to Guiri and whoever else, and get them over here. I'll explain things to sinjin at the Clan of the Big Idiot Board, and then invite peeker to join that Board.

I'll be back in later today to play some more, then be out of commission until Saturday morning. I'd like to send in my Night action, just in case, by this afternoon.

[normalphase]

Misfits is me, Ed, Guiri and Cookies.

[normalphase]

I see the logic in redirecting to HoC in one sense, but in another, if that person gets targeted for a kill by an HoC themselves, it would be bad, bad bad. Who among that group are not likely to have risen to high-level-suspect status for any of the others?

As for alliances, I'd like Ed to chime in also. I'm having a bad day and don't really trust my own decision making. You both know my various wants and concerns, so if you can work something out between the two of you that attempts to take those things into account, I'll go with it.

[Frank]

For the record, I would love to have Cookies and Guiri become the last two pieces of this thing we have here. Guiri has a phenomenally good power, one that could keep me alive and give us control of this game going into Night Three - because with Guiri's power supplementing our four votes, plus peeker and sinjin, plus Total and Blockey, I think there's very little chance I could be lynched Day Three. If I am still alive, and normal, Ed, Guiri, and Cookies are still alive, come Day Four, I think we have an excellent chance of winning this game with that foursome plus me. Cookies' power is one I'd rather have with me than against me, and she herself is a very, very smart player who sees connections among things very well.

From what I can see, the Misfits, plus me, would be a pretty powerful group. Let's do this, if Ed is on board.

I strongly recommend

[special]

If I were looking at these 2 groups to align myself and normal with:

1. Guiri, Cookies
2. sinjin, peeker

I would want to win with the second group. Sinjin has always had my back. Guiri, I don't trust so much yet. There's just something about his posts that rub me the wrong way. Not trusting me for my actions late in day 1 when I had no affiliation with the misfits, and also accusing me several times of giving away information (the last time quite mistakenly which he admitted). Still, I don't trust him.

Here's what I would suggest.

1. Keep the misfits the same.
2. Allow normal into the Big Idiot. Keep the final space open. Allow sinjin in here.
3. Form a new group with peeker, normal, myself and story and leave the final slot open.

That leaves our options the most open.
1. It keeps peeker isolated from this site and from all of our other allies. I think this will benefit us as I think he'd turn on all of us. The less he knows, the better off we are.
2. It forms a basic core of 5 non-HoC players. (with peeker as a 6th alternate). Normal, myself, Sinjin, Guiri, and Cookies. Almost certainly one of us will die. Then we'll have 4 people who can form a new clan to take the group to victory. Sinjin has already pledge to try to help me win even if I were to die, and that's noble, but foolish. If I died and the 4 of you won, I would claim a small moral victory for my part in that.

[special]

Have you asked peeker why Oredigger is dead? He was in peeker's primary clan.

[normalphase]

I haven't specifically, but peeker clearly wasn't happy with him and presumably killed him for it.