Spoiled Discussion

[chronos]

Lynch because people don't believe her, or lynch because a compulsory Vig is too dangerous to Town? The former, maybe (though I think I would probably believe the claim, were I unspoiled), but for the latter, we're about at the point where an optional Vig should be shooting full-time anyway, and besides, now that she's killed Cookies, it only needs the death of the SK for her to become voluntary.

Town now has two players who are as good as confirmed, plus a third as soon as Lightfoot gets around to claiming (since Storyteller said that Town included a Doc), out of a mere 10 players, and with 4 baddies left. That's a very target-rich environment, and if Town can lynch the SK this cycle (and they do have a pretty good lead on her), they'll be almost guaranteed to finish off the wolves. I see it like this:

1: Right now: 3 confirmed Townies, 3 unconfirmed Townies, 3 Scum, 1 SK
2: Lynch the SK: 3 confirmed Townies, 3 unconfirmed, 3 Scum
Now Scum has a choice, to kill either the Vig or the Doctor.
3a: Scum NKs the Vig, Vig NKs (worst-case) an unconfirmed Townie: 3 confirmed Townies, 1 unconfirmed, 3 Scum. Triple LyLo, but with those 3 confirmed, Town still has at least a 25% chance of victory (more, really, since they're not flying blind).
3b: Scum NKs the Vig, Vig NKs (as is more likely) a Scum: 3 confirmed Townies, 2 unconfirmed, 2 Scum. Town now has a 50% blind chance of victory, or more if the Vig hits the other goon (leaving the Scum with a problem for dealing with the Doctor).
3c: Scum blocks/NKs the Doctor, Vig NKs an unconfirmed Townie: 2 confirmed Townies, 2 unconfirmed (including the Vig), 3 Scum. Possible LyLo again, but if they hit anyone but the Vig, Town can likely finish off the unconfirmeds before the Scum can finish off Town.
3d: Scum blocks/NKs the Doctor, Vig NKs a Scum: 2 confirmed Townies, 3 unconfirmed (including the Vig, who is now pretty close to confirmed, also), 2 Scum. This is hopeless for the Scum.

The Scum can still throw a monkey wrench into the works by blocking the Vig, maybe, but that means they can't block the Doctor, which has its own risks. Of course, this is all based on the Town lynching the SK right now, too. They'll figure out who the SK is pretty quickly, one way or another, but if they don't do it right now, things look bad for the Town: Either they'll play chicken with the Scum over who has to kill the SK, leading to an SK victory (since the Scum weren't lying when they said they couldn't do it), or they'll kill the SK too late, letting the Scum and SK shrink the confirmed pool together and likely leading to a Scum victory.

An interesting point, by the way: If Town doesn't lynch the SK quickly enough, the Scum team might actually be forced to kill one of their own to stave off an SK victory. Now, that would be a sight to see.

[cometothedarkside]

Howdy y'all.

[Pleonast]

Mar 2, 2013 1:42:24 GMT -5 chronos said:

Eh, it remains to be seen whether wombat99 (now acting as the backup Vig) chooses to kill Wolf Cookies or SK Dizzy toNight (if she doesn't kill either, then she deserves to be smacked). Killing the SK would be better for Town, but the Wolf is more certain from a non-spoiled viewpoint, so one could make a case for either. And even without a second block, Town might still lynch Dizzy toMorrow, and besides which, as long as she doesn't actually win, the SK's kills probably benefit Scum. So I'd think that it'd be wiser for the Wolves to just wait and see for the moment.

I agree and will add that certain scum should not be lynched while there is known to be a pro-town vigilante. The problem with lynching certain scum is that their lynch provides no information. It's better to lynch an uncertain candidate, to force scum to make a decision bigger than "do I follow the bandwagon on the certain scum?".

So certain scum should always be left to the vig to eliminate. If for some reason that fails, you can always lynch them the next Day.

Also in these circumstances, alignment investigators should not reveal a certain scum until after the lynch has been well set.

Mar 4, 2013 5:30:04 GMT -5 cometothedarkside said:

Howdy y'all.

Hi! You played well. But I'm not sure why you capitulated so easily. Was it to pass the information onto town?

[cometothedarkside]

Mostly yes. If it was anyone but Diggit-the-confirmed making a WOW on me I probably would have tried to ride it out, but we had a lot of data that could help triangulate the third parties (most specifically the SK), more than we could ever hope to get out with the barn. And I was decidedly uneasy about having Fubbs on our team not able to participate and with no apparent sub, so I hoped that a big flash of information and chaos would provide Texcat and Johnny some cover finish flushing out the SK.

I do feel like I played a pretty good game, and the gambit did more good than harm for my team, so I died happy.

[chronos]

It's hard to puzzle it all out exactly, and it's certainly rare for it to benefit the Scum team for a Scum to confess, but I think in this case you just might have been right. You were facing the prospect of finishing off Town before Town hit the SK, which would have been your loss. Of course, your confession also increased the odds of Town winning.

[cometothedarkside]

I hope that my tendency to bus my teammates would mitigate those increased Town odds.

My 'analysis' of the 4 voters on Diggit, for example, has been hopefully been handily dismissed by more than just Dizzy. I used it precisely because PIS allowed me to be so darn insightful. The fact that Dizzy being SK makes that 3/4 non-town in those voters made me laugh.

I do have to wonder too, if Suburban would have actually come forward as he did without my scum data landing on the table first. Some of it was misdirection/manipulation yeah, but there was a lot of solid data in there too. I know Suburban might say that he would have come forward anyway, but I'd love to see the parallel universe in which I don't claim and see how the game might have panned out.

[cometothedarkside]

So are these spoiled boards not really spoiled? I don't see nightly actions anywhere.

[cometothedarkside]

I can smuggle the scum activity into a thread if people are interested.

[chronos]

We can read the Scum boards. Remember, the Scum PMs are posted here, so we know the URL and password.

But no, Story hasn't been posting the other actions.

[cometothedarkside]

Ah right. Forgot the scum board links were in there.

[cometothedarkside]

I mostly want to know if Dizzy and Wombat both targeted me for the kill last Night, and if so I would put that in my personal 'gambit payoff' category, though that would only really apply if one of them was considering killing another wolf instead I suppose.

And also curious of the other 2-kill night that we didn't block Dizzy was due to killers doubling up on targets.

[cometothedarkside]

The game thread's dead, baby. The game thread's dead.

[chronos]

The first two-kill Night was due to Suburban getting targeted (presumably by Dizzy), and his one-shot-bulletproof triggering. The second two-kill Night was due to you guys blocking Dizzy. I'm not sure about the third, but my guess is that the Scum and SK double-killed the same target.

[dizzymrslizzy]

No Night 1 I targeted Suburban, and got bounced back because he had one free hit.

Night 3 I targeted Cookies
Night 5 I targeted Johnny, and got bounced back because he was the Alpha.

Aside from my lame cop claim in the end, which was my bad newbie attempt at saving myself, I had 2 out of 5 of you, and was planning on going for Texcat tonight if I lived to tell about it.

[dizzymrslizzy]

And FTR, I didn't know that I "couldn't hit scum" I totally BSed my way through that trying to give town a chance, because despite being 3rd party, I was trying to town side.