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Post by The Guy with the Gun on Apr 27, 2012 12:18:08 GMT -5
Re: Message @ Apr 19, 2012, 6:19pm
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Post by The Guy with the Gun on Apr 27, 2012 12:19:25 GMT -5
Night 7 Thoughts on Apr 19, 2012, 6:48pm
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Post by The Guy with the Gun on Apr 27, 2012 12:20:11 GMT -5
N7 Night Action on Apr 21, 2012, 3:48pm
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Post by The Guy with the Gun on Apr 27, 2012 12:20:34 GMT -5
Alternate N7 Action (unused)
[/url]
But I figured NO ONE would get that reference (Batman devising an alternate hidden personality should he ever get mindwiped or attacked, an alternative one that he would use to help him survive until he regained his normal functions). Because Batman is just that prepared.[/quote]
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Post by The Guy with the Gun on Apr 27, 2012 12:21:05 GMT -5
Day 8 Thoughts
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That's the Code word right there from my late-night messenger. The "vanilla" role as being scum. Good to know my instincts from like... WAY back in the Day rang true. BillMC: Scummy McScum.
So then.
Scathatch is dead. Bummer, I liked her resultations because anything she would have gotten would only help me out- no investigator at this point woulda had anything bad to mention about me. But I totally understand why Scum would want her dead. And it's a bit of WIFOM of who would the Doc protect and which Doc is the truth telling one.
That said. Today: Final 6. WHOOOO! If there's 2 scum left, its basically Game Over if 1 other person joins the Scummy Wagon. As a majority of 3 will let the scum take 'em out. So any wagon that quickly gets 3 votes- I'd be HIGHLY Suspicious of- especially if it's not really being contested. A warning sign would be if there are 5 votes [not including a last min vote switch] on a player by the end of the Day- that player is MOST LIKELY town. Scum are more likely to pull a 1-2 punch. One sets 'em up. The other lays low. Waits for a 2-2 situation, and then tries to force it to 3 the quickest. Once that player reaches 3 vote first, they're the ones up for the lynching. That's the idea goal for them. IF there is 2 scum alive. If 1, all this goes out the window, and it's basically Scum is playing as a PFK Survivor. He's laying low and trying to get a bandwagon going on without trying to get his hands too dirty.
My job in all this? If I'm the 3rd person and I'm helping scum- on a 2 on 2 situation I come in and I vote as the 3rd vote, and I don't remove mine, scum don't remove theirs, and the game is done. Voila! Achievement: Survivor Victory unlocked. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
So... what ACTUALLY is going on ToDay?
Hal gets sideswiped with a HUGE BUSSING WoW post by BillMC, that's why I worried about Bill. I felt he was capable of making such a post, and I certainly wouldn't want to get hit by that ScumBus of epic proportions. It's basically slammed into Hal (who wasnt even voting for Bill), and then paints him in such a scummy light. Hal is TRYING to defend himself, but Bill['s keeping the Wine and paint nearby and smearing Briston's words and defense each time so he can't fight back. That bus was so effective, we've already got 2 votes on the Bandwagon. Gadarene and Sinjin- one of whom is likely scum- the other... more likely to be a Townie who drank the wine, or perhaps a 3rd person also bribed back in the day- insurance for the scum team? Smart of 'em if it is. That said....
This leaves Me and Mahaloth not voting. Hal has already tried to switch to BillMC, correctly, but got smeared as an OMGUS vote which he's not defending well against. So the key?
Mahaloth and Hal need to both vote BillMC. AND the Non-Scum Hal voter needs to break with the Hal lynch, and vote for BillMC as well to make it 3-2.
That's where my job would comes into this mess.
Right now- scum are poised to win. If i come in and VOTE HAL. That's a fuck-up. With 4 votes against Hal, Mahaloth will KNOW that at least 1-2 of the Hal votes are likely scum (unless he wants to WIFOM that both BillMC and Hal are scum trying to Bus each other to gain credibility).
So my current goal: -make sure Mahaloth stays cool and doesn't freak out. Best way to do it?
By actually doing NOTHING. Hear me out: -SBrown can cement the vote by voting for Hal right now. --> Problem: 1. Super scummy when it's 4 on 1 in a 6 person game. We know there isn't 3 scum alive. But the possibility of 2 scum is strong. The odds of the 2 scum being Hal/Mahaloth? Damn near impossible. Mahaloth is the most Townie, and currently not voting. So we have 5 voters of "unknown" alignments. of those 5 voters, we've got 1-2 scum in there.
If it's 4 vs. 1- odds that the scum are doing a bussing of each other? Also highly unlikely- the goal of a bussing is to smear both usually and try to make the votes 2-2 or 3-2. So as to create a fake "scumbuddy' who the remaining scum can vote for the next Day (as the guy who voted WITH the scum and thus might be the last scum).
So if it's 4 vs. 1- odds are there are 1-2 scum amongst the 4. Who gets the most scummy credibility? The Hammer. Which would be moi. By my voting- I ensured that the scum lynch goes through. Thus, 2 things will happen:
The townie person in the voting group of 3 will pull away- and vote for BillMC or Myself (and force Hal to vote for me to save himself) AND Mahaloth the Townie will get involved and vote for me as well, creating a 3 v 3 tie....
Here's where it gets tricky then. Scum can do 2 things- if two of them: 1. They can force the Win. 3v3, tiebreaker favors them. Lynch Hal the townie. It's 5 left, kill Mahaloth at night, and it's 4 left toMorrow with the 3rd Party (Moi) alive, and they win 3-1. 2. If they want to be dicks or feeling wishy-washy... they can unvote Hal (the 2nd scum obv. not billMC), and join the ROOSH Bandwagon. They kill the 3rd Party 4 to 1, gain credibility, and avoid looking super obvious as scum. Then it goes again 5 into the Night, and they kill one. It's then 4 left toMorrow, with Scum Victory (2 over 2).
The PROBLEM with that? I'm DEAD. And I don't get to share the victory. So fuck that risk!
3. This all assumes there's 2 scum. If there's 1 scum, then it's worse. We lynch Hal. Hal comes up Town. That means of the 4 voters on Hal, likely 1 is scum right? NK occurs, blah blah (likely mahaloth the confirmed townie), and we go to Day with 4 alive: They'll deduce there is one scum left, because there's a Day 9, and it's likely 1 scum, 1 3rd, and 2 townies or so on. Again, we gotta play the lynching game. If the two Townies feel the scummiest person out of the two is: NOT Bill (instigator of lynch), but instead SBrown (the Hammering Devicer "confirming" vote for the Townie).
Basically- that'll force Day 9 to be BillMC vs. Ro0sh. An epic battle of words, but not one I'd really like to hash out for 5 days. That's exactly what I'd like to avoid actually since the start of this game.
Because if they lynch me. Then it's final 3, BillMC goes into the night, and kills one Townie, and it's final 2, and scum win. Again with the SURVIVOR DEAD. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
That's my dilemma. I NEED: -Two Scum alive. -Both scum to continue voting Hal -Hal/b] to have 3 votes on him at all times. BillMC must be a better lynch target than myself during the Day toDay. Lest scum decide to play the long game out and lynch me instead for credibility and/or because there's only 1 of them and they need to keep surviving. If it's BIllMC as the last, I'm sure he's done the math and realized this option is possible for him to still win w/o my help.
So with all that knowledge (none of which will be posted to the Game Thread), what's a Gal to do? -If I was Townie, this is EXACTLY the stuff I'd be explaining- the whole final 6, likely <3 scum, and we've got to convince the 3rd party to side with the Town- try to create a pool of 2-3 people who claim to be 3rd or townie instead (see if you can draw out a scum who fake claims 3rd). Basically set a trap for the 3rd. ----> I would also try to early on make a post explaining the whole "reaching 3 votes" issue, and thus try to tell ALL TOWNIES Should do their best to avoid being the 3rd vote on someone, and we need to spend the Day going through the targets or the 2v2 pool- likely one of the two is scum, and one is town, or at least examine who voted for each of the people- so investigate the 4 voters. Blah blah blah, you guys know how to play it Townie style.
Scum- we try to muscle through. But 3rd party?
i have to sit quietly and wait for Mahaloth the Townie. If he votes for Hal, I just don't vote, or I act confused. If he votes for Bill, I'll vote for Hal immediately, and we go into forcing it through.
Scum team is on the Green, and we're putting. We can't try to force this too hard though- My move is to stay quiet until 48 hours left in the Day, then start to slowly smear Hal more and more. OR create a fake 3rd voting choice. Maybe Gadarene or Sinjin (the blue pee hence). But at the end, I pretend to WiFOM, and then at less than 12 hours left, I "panic" and then I vote Hal, and we try to close up this game.
This is the time for no errors, we can't be sloppy or overeager as a survivor to make it to the LyLo. This is what phase 4 is ALL about- each of the surviving players is there, and each of their votes matter.
So i want to keep it 3 v 1 as long as i can.
Other option- go 3 v 2. Wait a while. And then at the last min Switch to Hal. Again, that's a decision to make with 48 hours left in the Day. We need to avoid everything getting rough and choppy, especially with a long stretch of time to go. I cannot fuck this up. Not so close to the end.
Stay cool :crazy: and follow the Rules.
Cards left to play: -Smear Sinjin and act clueless about the blue pee -Ask stupid questions -WIFOM- Device and all with Hal. -Act confused/scared/panicky about it being almost lylo -make stupid comments/trivialize things/act like confused Townie. -"Flip a coin" approach to it all with less than 24 hours to go.
But i think i've got a plan set in place. Again it all depends on how Mahaloth reacts. We're all wolves hunting deer, and we don't want to spook the herd too soon. But if one bolts, we'll leap in for the kill and take out the sickly target. But at the same time, I'm not exactly willing to stick my own neck out so far as to get trampled by the herd either.....
-Ro0sh's Thoughts
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Post by The Guy with the Gun on Apr 27, 2012 12:21:26 GMT -5
Thoughts Day 8.2
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Post by The Guy with the Gun on Apr 27, 2012 12:22:02 GMT -5
Thoughts Day 8.25 OOPS on Apr 24, 2012, 11:31pm
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Post by The Guy with the Gun on Apr 27, 2012 12:22:41 GMT -5
Thoughts Day 8.3 (on rechecking/Final thoughts) on Apr 24, 2012, 11:38pm
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